The Des Moines Register
October 13, 2014
Iowa’s blitzkrieg U.S. Senate race is now a 1-point contest: Republican Joni Ernst is at 47 percent, and Democrat Bruce Braley is right at her heels at 46 percent with likely voters, a new Iowa Poll shows.
As armies of Democratic activists go door to door urging Iowans to fill out absentee ballots, they’re piling up votes for Braley, who was 6 points down just two weeks ago.
“Braley’s catching up,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, which was conducted Oct. 3-8.
But Ernst has made gains, too. She’s 3 percentage points higher than two weeks ago, when she was at 44 percent.
The new poll reveals three potential reasons why this race has tightened in the final sprint:
• The Democrats’ aggressive early voting push is aiding Braley, an eight-year congressman from Waterloo. They’re rounding up ballots from Iowans who would not otherwise have voted.
• A majority of Iowa likely voters appreciate having a U.S. senator from each political party. Retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin, 74, has been an old-school liberal street fighter for Iowa for 30 years. And Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, 81, who intends to keep adding to his 33 years in the Senate, is a conservative powerhouse.
• Likely voters find more of Braley’s policy positions closer to their own views than Ernst’s positions among 10 issues tested. A majority of likely voters favor six of Braley’s stances to four of Ernst’s.
The Iowa Poll of 1,000 likely voters in the 2014 general election has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
